Howdy folks! Hope everyone is having fun with their Studio Ghibli style photos which are cute. I made some progress in career, hopefully will share the good news soon. Kubecon London has concluded. All my screen time goes to listening to their talks. Life is good but there is always room for improvement. In this blog post, I wanted to dive deep into some topics that I have been pondering for quite sometime.
Disclaimer: I am an individual working in tech sector. I never academically pursued immigration or economics. Data maybe incorrect, arguments maybe flawed but intent is genuine. AI maybe used to read the source material to write this post but no part of this blog is AI written(As one can realize from the poor grammarš).
Free Privileged Speech
Yes, we all can agree that ability to immigrate to a country is a privilege and not a right. US have always been a diverse country where immigrants can thrive with hard work and perseverance to become a cornerstone of the nation. Be it Italians, Irish, Chinese, Arabs and Indians. But I always thought free speech is a right for everyone who is legally present. As Emma Lazarusā iconic poem engraved on the Statue of Liberty goes
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
āKeep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!ā cries she
With silent lips. āGive me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!ā
Maybe this has to be updated again to āyearning to breathe free as long as you do not criticize government with that freedomā. Ironically Emma is a Jewish American. With the current acts of government, If a privilege can be revoked for exercising a right, Isnāt right a privilege now?
The L Day
Coming on to a lighter topic, I have always enjoyed President Trumpās press meets. He is candid, fun and whimsical. I always believed he have best interests at heart but his approaches are far from ideal. On April 2nd he have liberated Americans from the shackles for free trade by imposing reciprocal sanctions on all the countries including uninhabited islands like Heard and McDonald Islands. Which questions the amount of thought went into the matter at hand given the stakes. I have always believed that tariffs are important tool in principle to build and strengthen local industries which pays exponentially by keeping money inside the economy. But this sort of implementation begs the question, Will this work?
I would prefer to buy an American made hat at $50 which may earn $5 in net income to an American worker than $25 cap which is made in China and which may earn $0.5 to a Chinese worker because..
Money earned by an American will become a income to at least 6 other people. Imagine Company ā worker ā restaurant employee ā gas station employee ā coffeeshop employee ā etc
Chinese government takes major chunk of the sale which in turn uses it for global dominance, spyware masqueraded as weather balloons or spy vessels masquerading as research ships etc.
CCP promises itās people some sort of global economic dominance as it used to be before the āCentury of Humiliationā. This forces CCP to save face in front of its people by doing things like āBelt and Roadā and āEV supply chain dominanceā etc.
My concern is that the lack of democracy will take country in a wrong path for a prolonged periods of time and when people starts becoming wary of its government, they can try to keep false sense of nationalism intact by going into war with other nations. Imagine āBattle of Falklandsā, āKuwait warā etc. CCP have quite few targets like Taiwan, India, Japan, Philippines and Russia.
I have always thought that American government has left its workers high and dry in the pursuit of cheaper products and using its consumers as a bargaining chip in the geo-political global dominance game. This has led to awful demises of many industries like auto, manufacturing etc. rendering majority of American middle class to rely on service sector. Instead of competing in production at global markets, USA has gave up on its pursuit of raising a generation of highly skilled workforce, automation and innovation. Itās a sad reality where the nation that pioneered assembly line have given up on its industry for cheaper alternatives.
An Indian Perspective
I have lived in india for 25 years which have very high tariffs on electronics and luxury goods, sometimes as much as 100%. I can only justify tariffs in India as a way of raising income and putting a smaller orifice for the flow of Chinese products with whom India is at odds since Indo-China war of 1962. There is a popular way of categorizing Indian consumers into 3 groups. Europe, Brazil and Africa. Europe category is small maybe 5cr who are not much worried about tariffs since the purchases are discretionary in nature and they buy the luxury goods anyway for their comfort and to garner respect. African section of Indian economy comprises of around 100cr which have nothing to do with the products of foreign origin. The Brazilian section is the middle class who are stuck between rock and hard place. They wants to(sometimes have to) buy electronics or luxury goods will suffer due to these high tariffs and often try to emigrate to western nations for better quality of life and higher purchase parity.
None of these tariffs have moved any production to India till recent days. Due to raise in middle class population accessibility to cheaper skilled labor and with government initiatives like āMake in Indiaā and āPLIā, there is a growth in production. Iphones have become cheaper in India when compared to USA.
Problems in current implementation
On a bigger picture, USA does not want to be global policeman anymore and it is trading soft power for prosperity which leaves a void and leads to an emergence of new global order. As many problems there are with current global order, The USA have played a key role in relatively peaceful world since WW2 and I am personally grateful for that. The genZ are struggling to make ends meet and wants to make decent living. USAās changing priorities can help a lot with that.
There are many problems with current tariff implementation likeā¦
Trade deficit should not be a prime proponent to tariffs.Things like Italian cheese, Scotch and Champagne will always have better quality at cheaper price.
There are no long term plans for tariffs. Are they going to be here after Trump? Can companies gamble on moving production back to USA? Is declining population and struggling generation a concern?
Tariffs are not industry targeted. For example you can try to move auto and semiconductor industries back by piggybacking on CHIPS Act investments.
Skilled labor is always a concern. The current higher education system is far from ideal to address this problem. Are there any program linked incentives for universities?
An Ideal way
The best way in my opinion to reduce trade deficit and make US an industrial powerhouse again is by categorizing deficit in 3 groups
| Group | Industries | Ideal timeline | Remarks |
| Green(Low hanging fruits) | Food processing, apparel etc | 2-4 years | Relatively easy to setup and can take advantage of automation, AI, robotics and skilled labor. |
| Yellow(Relatively hard) | semiconductor, auto and electronics | 4-8years | These industries used to be in USA but have moved due to cheaper costs. Hence can be moved back easily. This also helps to keep Chinese growth at bay. Challenges include availability of high skilled labor where the migrants can be leveraged. |
| Red(Impossible) | Traditional specialties | - | Good if there are alternatives but doesnāt have to be targeted. |
Government should not treat tariffs as a source of income(please do not get addicted) and should pump the money raised as different forms of incentives to their respective industries. Imagine tax rebates, incentivizing universities for industry specific programs and income tax discounts for highly skilled workers participating in inter-state migration.
More tariffs collected for an industry ā More money gets pumped as incentives ā Faster progression to target
Conclusion
I am and always grateful to this country. The people are patriotic, hardworking, warm and always treated me with humility. I hate to see them struggle where their government wastes money on pointless pursuits and lack of clearer vision. You simply cannot perform surgery with an axe. It takes dexterity, perseverance and most of allā¦ time. As the old Indian saying goes, I would like to quote it in the spirit of globalization.
ą¤µą¤øą„ą¤§ą„ą¤µ ą¤ą„ą¤ą„ą¤®ą„ą¤¬ą¤®ą„ ~ World is one big family
